World Bank Global Economic Prospects (June 2026): Middle East conflict slows 2026 growth to 2.5%Higher energy prices slow the world economy to its lowest growth since the pandemic
On June 11, 2026 the World Bank published its Global Economic Prospects. Higher energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East, together with steeper inflation and higher borrowing costs, are forecast to slow global growth from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.5% in 2026, the lowest rate since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth improves to 2.8% in 2027 but stays 0.4 percentage point below the 2010s average.The World Bank, an international organisation, has published its outlook for the world economy. Because the conflict in the Middle East pushes up energy prices and other prices, world growth in 2026 is expected to be 2.5%, the lowest since the pandemic began. The impact is said to be especially big on developing countries.
January 2026June 2026
World2.6%2.5%
Developing economies4.0%3.6%
East Asia and Pacific4.4%4.2%
Europe and Central Asia2.4%2.1%
South Asia6.2%6.3%
- (1) StraitThe closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts energy markets
- (2) Prices upThe prices of crude oil and fertilizer rise
- (3) InflationPrices around the world rise faster
- (4) GrowthWorld growth slows to 2.5%