How the weather is decided (all rules are mechanical)
How the weather is decided (all rules are mechanical)
Nikkei 225
Based on the 5-trading-day change: +3% or more = clear / +1 to +3% = fair / -1 to +1% = cloudy / -3 to -1% = rain / -3% or less = storm
S&P 500 (US)
Based on the 5-trading-day change: +3% or more = clear / +1 to +3% = fair / -1 to +1% = cloudy / -3 to -1% = rain / -3% or less = storm
Dow Jones
Based on the 5-trading-day change: +3% or more = clear / +1 to +3% = fair / -1 to +1% = cloudy / -3 to -1% = rain / -3% or less = storm
Nasdaq Composite
Based on the 5-trading-day change: +3% or more = clear / +1 to +3% = fair / -1 to +1% = cloudy / -3 to -1% = rain / -3% or less = storm
Germany DAX
Based on the 5-trading-day change: +3% or more = clear / +1 to +3% = fair / -1 to +1% = cloudy / -3 to -1% = rain / -3% or less = storm
UK FTSE 100
Based on the 5-trading-day change: +3% or more = clear / +1 to +3% = fair / -1 to +1% = cloudy / -3 to -1% = rain / -3% or less = storm
China Shanghai Composite
Based on the 5-trading-day change: +3% or more = clear / +1 to +3% = fair / -1 to +1% = cloudy / -3 to -1% = rain / -3% or less = storm
Korea KOSPI
Based on the 5-trading-day change: +3% or more = clear / +1 to +3% = fair / -1 to +1% = cloudy / -3 to -1% = rain / -3% or less = storm
India SENSEX
Based on the 5-trading-day change: +3% or more = clear / +1 to +3% = fair / -1 to +1% = cloudy / -3 to -1% = rain / -3% or less = storm
USD/JPY
Based on the size of the 5-trading-day move (either direction): under 0.7% = clear / under 1.5% = fair / under 2.5% = cloudy / under 4% = rain / 4% or more = storm. Direction is shown separately; no judgment on whether a weak or strong yen is good
EUR/JPY
Based on the size of the 5-trading-day move (either direction): under 0.7% = clear / under 1.5% = fair / under 2.5% = cloudy / under 4% = rain / 4% or more = storm. Direction is shown separately; no judgment on whether a weak or strong yen is good
Japan 10-year JGB yield
Based on the 5-trading-day change in the yield (either direction): under 0.05 pt = clear / under 0.12 = fair / under 0.2 = cloudy / under 0.35 = rain / 0.35 or more = storm
US 10-year Treasury yield
Based on the 5-trading-day change in the yield (either direction): under 0.05 pt = clear / under 0.12 = fair / under 0.2 = cloudy / under 0.35 = rain / 0.35 or more = storm
Crude oil (WTI futures)
Based on the size of the 5-trading-day move (either direction): under 2% = clear / under 4% = fair / under 7% = cloudy / under 10% = rain / 10% or more = storm
Gold (futures)
Based on the size of the 5-trading-day move (either direction): under 2% = clear / under 4% = fair / under 7% = cloudy / under 10% = rain / 10% or more = storm
Prices (CPI)
Based on the gap from the Bank of Japan's 2% price target: within 0.3 pt = clear / 0.7 = fair / 1.2 = cloudy / 2.0 = rain / more = storm
GDP
Based on real GDP annualized QoQ: +2% or more = clear / +0.5% or more = fair / -0.5 to +0.5% = cloudy / -2 to -0.5% = rain / -2% or less = storm
Trade balance
Based on the balance as a share of exports plus imports: +1% or more = clear / 0% or more = fair / -2% or more = cloudy / -4% or more = rain / below = storm
Wages (real)
Based on YoY real wages (total cash earnings): +1% or more = clear / 0% or more = fair / -1% or more = cloudy / -2% or more = rain / below = storm
Business sentiment (BOJ Tankan)
Based on the large-firm, all-industry DI: +20 or more = clear / +10 or more = fair / 0 or more = cloudy / -10 or more = rain / below = storm
Producer prices (CGPI)
Based on the gap of YoY from 2% (how heavy purchasing costs are): within 1 pt = clear / 2.5 = fair / 4 = cloudy / 6 = rain / more = storm
BOJ policy rate
Shown as information on the level itself. No judgment of good or bad, so no weather
Values are reference figures based on each provider's releases and feeds and may be delayed or contain errors. The weather is a mechanical guide based on rules, not a forecast or investment solicitation. Check primary sources and decide at your own risk. Stocks, USD/JPY, oil, gold and US Treasuries use free (unofficial) market data. Sources: Ministry of Finance (JGB yields), ECB (euro reference rates), Bank of Japan, Statistics Bureau, Cabinet Office, Customs, MHLW, free market data (stocks, FX, commodities, US Treasuries)