WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (March 2026): trade to slow in 2026, with the Middle East conflict a dragWorld trade is expected to slow a little in 2026
On March 19, 2026 the WTO released its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics. World trade, which grew more than expected in 2025 on surging trade in AI-enabling goods, is forecast to slow in 2026. In the baseline scenario, which excludes energy price shocks, merchandise trade volume growth falls from 4.6% to 1.9%, and in a scenario of persistently high energy prices it falls further to 1.4%.
Key points
- World merchandise trade volume rose 4.6% in 2025, above the 2.4% predicted in October 2025; trade in AI-enabling goods rose 21.9% to US$4.18 trillion and accounted for 42% of trade growth
- Baseline scenario, excluding energy price shocks: merchandise trade volume grows 1.9% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, with global GDP growth of 2.8% in both years
- If crude oil and LNG prices stay elevated throughout 2026, global GDP is cut by 0.3 percentage point and trade by 0.5 point, leaving merchandise trade growth at just 1.4%
- Commercial services trade, up 5.3% in 2025, is projected to grow 4.8% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027 in the baseline, and 4.1% in 2026 once the Middle East conflict is taken into account
- The share of world trade conducted on a most-favoured-nation (MFN) basis was estimated at 72% at the end of February 2026
What to do in practice
- Check how disruption to energy and sea transport could affect your purchasing and shipping costs
- Forecasts are revised, so check the latest WTO publication, such as the October update
The WTO, an international organisation, has published its outlook for world trade. In 2025, trade in AI-related products such as semiconductors and servers jumped, and trade grew 4.6%. In 2026, partly as a reaction to that, growth is expected to settle at 1.9%. If energy stays expensive because of the conflict in the Middle East, it could fall even lower.
- (1) 2025AI-related goods surge and trade grows 4.6%
- (2) 2026Growth is expected to ease to 1.9%
- (3) WorryIt could fall to 1.4% if energy stays expensive
Points
- World trade in goods grew 4.6% in 2025, more than expected
- Growth is expected to be 1.9% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027
- If energy prices stay high because of the conflict in the Middle East, trade growth could fall to 1.4%
What the words mean
- trade volume
- the amount of goods and services exchanged with other countries, leaving out the effect of price changes
- LNG
- natural gas cooled into a liquid
World trade is set to slow in 2026 following stronger than expected growth in 2025 on the back of surging trade in AI-enabling products. WTO economists warn that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could further reduce trade growth if energy prices remain elevated, noting that it would also put pressure on food supplies and services trade due to travel and transport disruptions.
- World Trade Organization (WTO): WTO news item: Middle East conflict weighs further on slowing trade outlook (Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, March 19, 2026)
Economic news presents published statistics and outlooks. It is not investment solicitation or trading advice. Figures are as of publication and may be revised.
This article summarizes and explains materials published by government agencies and is not advice on any individual case. Rules can change, so for actual procedures and decisions always check the latest original materials and consult professionals such as tax accountants or labor and social security attorneys. English, Simplified Chinese and Traditional Chinese versions are translations prepared from the Japanese articles for convenience. If anything differs, the Japanese text and the original source take precedence.