OECD Economic Outlook (December 2025): global growth to ease from 3.2% to 2.9%The world economy is expected to slow a little next year (OECD)
On December 2, 2025 the OECD published its latest Economic Outlook. It says the global economy has proved resilient this year but underlying fragilities remain, and projects global growth slowing from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026 before picking up to 3.1% in 2027. G20 inflation is expected to move from 3.4% this year to 2.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
Key points
- Global growth is projected at 3.2% in 2025, 2.9% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027
- The United States is projected at 2.0% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027; the euro area at 1.3%, 1.2% and 1.4%; China at 5.0%, 4.4% and 4.3%
- Annual headline inflation in the G20 is expected to fall to 2.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, with inflation back to target in most major economies by mid-2027
- Risks include further increases in trade barriers; weaker growth, lower-than-expected returns on AI investment or upside inflation surprises could trigger widespread repricing of risk in financial markets
What to do in practice
- Check the growth and inflation projections for the countries where your main customers and suppliers are located
- When you set assumptions for interest rates or exchange rates, check whether the publisher has since issued a newer outlook
The OECD, an international organisation, has published its outlook for the world economy. Global growth is expected to ease from 3.2% this year to 2.9% next year and then return to 3.1% the year after. The pace at which prices rise is also expected to calm down gradually.
- (1) 2025Growth of 3.2%
- (2) 2026Eases to 2.9%
- (3) 2027Picks up to 3.1%
Points
- Global growth is expected to be 3.2% this year, 2.9% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027
- The pace of price rises is expected to fall from 3.4% this year to 2.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027
- Higher trade barriers and disappointing returns from AI are named among the worries
What the words mean
- growth rate
- how many percent more goods and services a country produces in a year than the year before
- OECD
- an international organisation where countries discuss economic policy
The global economy has proved resilient this year but underlying fragilities remain, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. The Outlook projects global growth slowing from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, before picking up to 3.1% in 2027.
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): OECD press release: Global economy proves resilient but remains fragile (December 2, 2025)
Economic news presents published statistics and outlooks. It is not investment solicitation or trading advice. Figures are as of publication and may be revised.
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