On October 8, 2026 the WTO updated its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics. Global trade proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2026 despite the Middle East conflict, as supply chains adapted and AI investment surged, and the merchandise trade volume forecast was raised from 1.9% in March to 3.9%. The services trade forecast was cut from 4.8% to 3.3%, and the gains are uneven across regions.The WTO, an international organisation, has raised its forecast for world trade. Even with the conflict in the Middle East, logistics workarounds and growing trade in semiconductors and servers for AI helped, so trade in goods is expected to grow 3.9% in 2026. Services such as travel and transport are weak, though, and countries and regions differ.
Change in WTO forecasts (March vs October)
March 2026 forecastOctober 2026 forecast
Merchandise trade volume 20261.9%3.9%
Services trade volume 20264.8%3.3%
World GDP 20262.8%2.6%
Growth in merchandise exports by region in 2026 (forecast)
On October 8 the Bank of Japan published the Regional Economic Report (Sakura Report) for October 2026. It compiles reports from the Bank's branches and other regional economic departments, based on information gathered for the branch managers' meeting held the same day, and states that although some weak movements are seen, economic activity in all regions is "recovering moderately", "picking up" or "picking up moderately".The Bank of Japan divides the country into nine regions and, four times a year, reports on the economy by putting together the information gathered by its branches and other offices. In the October 8 report, published on October 2026, the economy in every region is described as "recovering moderately", "picking up" or "picking up moderately". Some weak movements are also seen, however.
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In the preliminary balance of payments for August released by the Ministry of Finance on October 8, 2026 (Reiwa 8), the current account balance showed a surplus of JPY 4,062.0 billion, a surplus JPY 433.9 billion larger than a year earlier. The trade balance showed a deficit of JPY 687.7 billion, turning from a surplus in the same month a year earlier.The government announced a table summarizing money flowing in and out with other countries. In August, Japan received more money from other countries than it paid out. But looking only at buying and selling goods, it bought more than it sold.
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