BOJ Outlook Report (January 2026): moderate growth, inflation to dip below 2% in the first halfHow the Bank of Japan sees the economy ahead (January 2026)
On January 23, 2026, the Bank of Japan published the Bank's view in its Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (January 2026), decided at the Monetary Policy Meeting held on January 22 and 23. It expects the economy to keep growing moderately as the positive cycle from income to spending gradually strengthens. Year-on-year CPI (all items less fresh food) is expected to narrow below 2% in the first half of this year, then gradually rise, and in the latter half of the projection period to move at a level broadly consistent with the price stability target.Four times a year the Bank of Japan publishes an Outlook Report on how the economy and prices are likely to move. In the January 23, 2026 report, it expects Japan's economy to keep growing slowly. It expects price increases to ease for a while in the first half of this year and then pick up gradually again.
- (1) EconomyKeeps growing moderately
- (2) Prices, first half of the yearPrice increases ease to below 2%
- (3) After thatPrice increases gradually pick up as the economy improves and labor gets scarcer
- (4) Latter half of the projection periodMoves at a level broadly in line with the Bank's target