Ahead of the BOJ's October Meeting (Oct 29-30): How the Policy Rate Reached About 1.25% and What to WatchThe Bank of Japan Meets on the 29th and 30th to Decide the 'Price of Money'
The Bank of Japan holds a Monetary Policy Meeting on October 29-30, with the basic view of its Outlook Report and the Governor's press conference scheduled for release on the 30th. At the latest meeting on September 18, it decided by a 7-2 vote to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to move at around 1.25%. Based on BOJ publications, this article explains how to read the meeting and what companies thinking about borrowing and pricing should keep in mind.
- July 31, 2026Outlook Report released. Core consumer prices (excluding fresh food) are projected to rise clearly above 2% from the second half of FY2026
- September 18, 2026Decided to encourage the overnight call rate to move at around 1.25% (7 to 2)
- September 24, 2026New operating guideline and applicable rates take effect
- October 29-30, 2026Monetary Policy Meeting. Basic view of the Outlook Report and press conference scheduled for the 30th
- November 10, 2026Summary of Opinions scheduled for release
- December 23, 2026Minutes scheduled for release
Key points
- Schedule: the meeting is on Thursday, October 29 and Friday, October 30. The basic view of the Outlook Report and the Governor's regular press conference are scheduled for the 30th. The Summary of Opinions is due November 10 and the Minutes December 23
- Latest decision (September 18): encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to move at around 1.25%. The interest rate on the complementary deposit facility is 1.25% and the basic loan rate is 1.5%. The vote was 7 to 2, applied from September 24
- Why two members dissented: Member Asada said that with core consumer price inflation (excluding fresh food) below 2% and the economy not necessarily strong, keeping the rate unchanged was preferable. Member Sato said the economy and prices had not accelerated markedly, so a rate hike at this timing was not appropriate
- Outlook for policy (from the statement): with underlying inflation approaching 2% and financial conditions accommodative, the Bank will continue to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of easing according to economic, price and financial developments. Timing and pace will be considered by checking how likely the baseline outlook is to materialize and the risks, including Middle East developments, growing AI-related demand and exchange rate moves
- Financial conditions (September assessment): accommodative; real interest rates remain low mainly in the short and medium term; firms' demand for funds is increasing and financial institutions' lending attitudes remain positive
What to do in practice
- Check the statement on the BOJ's Monetary Policy Meetings page on the 30th. Do not build plans on an assumed result beforehand
- If you have floating-rate borrowing, check the review timing and the benchmark rate in the contract, and estimate in your cash-flow table how repayments would rise
- Read the price outlook in the Outlook Report as a reference when planning price revisions and wage increases
The Bank of Japan holds a meeting on October 29 and 30 to decide the guide for interest rates, which is like the price of money. At the September meeting, it decided to aim for about 1.25% as the guide rate for lending between banks. Seven of the nine members agreed and two disagreed.
- 1. MeetingMembers gather and talk on October 29 and 30
- 2. ResultOn the 30th, what to do with the guide rate is announced
- 3. OutlookThe same day, a report on the outlook for the economy and prices comes out
- 4. OpinionsA summary of members' opinions is due on November 10
Points
- The meeting is on October 29 and 30. On the 30th, the Outlook Report, which sums up the outlook for the economy and prices, and the Governor's press conference are scheduled
- At the September meeting, it decided on about 1.25% as the guide rate. The two who disagreed gave reasons such as that prices are not yet rising strongly
- The Bank wrote that it will keep raising rates while watching conditions. When and by how much will be decided after checking prices, exchange rates and other things
What the words mean
- Policy rate
- A guide to the price of money that the Bank of Japan decides it wants to aim for
- Outlook Report
- A report in which the Bank sums up its outlook for the economy and prices
- Dissent
- To vote that you cannot agree with the way something was decided
- Bank of Japan: Bank of Japan: Monetary Policy Meetings (2026 schedule and release dates)
- Bank of Japan: Bank of Japan: Change in the Guideline for Market Operations (September 18, 2026)
- Bank of Japan: Bank of Japan: Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (July 2026)
Economic news presents published statistics and outlooks. It is not investment solicitation or trading advice. Figures are as of publication and may be revised.
This article summarizes and explains materials published by government agencies and is not advice on any individual case. Rules can change, so for actual procedures and decisions always check the latest original materials and consult professionals such as tax accountants or labor and social security attorneys. English, Simplified Chinese and Traditional Chinese versions are translations prepared from the Japanese articles for convenience. If anything differs, the Japanese text and the original source take precedence.