IMF autumn World Economic Outlook: growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, stressing high prices and rebuilding fiscal spaceWill the world economy slowly recover by next year? The IMF's latest forecast
In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, the IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, and global inflation of 4.7% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027. Risks are mainly on the downside, and the assessment is that conditions remain difficult for energy-importing countries.
Key points
- The IMF projects global real growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027
- Global inflation (headline) is expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 and fall to 4.1% in 2027
- Downside risks cited include escalating conflicts, a reassessment of expectations for AI, renewed trade tensions and fiscal vulnerabilities
- On policy, it recommends rebuilding fiscal space without delay and centering cost-of-living support on temporary, targeted income support
- It estimates that measures to suppress prices can cost 3 to 22 times more fiscally than comparable income support
What to do in practice
- Review price terms with trading partners, considering how rising raw material, energy and logistics costs affect your costs and your ability to pass them on in prices
- If you have foreign-currency transactions or overseas purchases, revisit cash flow plans and budgets with a margin that allows for exchange rate movements
The IMF, an international organization that watches how money moves around the world, has announced its forecast for the world economy. This year, growth is like going from 100 yen to about 103 yen, and it expects prices to rise by more than last year.
Points
- The world economy is expected to grow 3.1% this year and 3.4% next year
- It expects prices of goods to rise 4.7% on average this year
- There is a worry that things could turn out worse than forecast because of wars, trade disputes and changing hopes about AI
What the words mean
- IMF
- An international organization where countries discuss and help with money and economic matters
- Inflation rate
- How much the prices of goods and services have gone up in one year, as a percentage
- IMF (International Monetary Fund): IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2026)
- IMF (International Monetary Fund): IMF World Economic Outlook Update (July 2026)
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