WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (October 2026): merchandise trade forecast raised to 3.9%World trade did better than expected, but unevenly across regions
On October 8, 2026 the WTO updated its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics. Global trade proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2026 despite the Middle East conflict, as supply chains adapted and AI investment surged, and the merchandise trade volume forecast was raised from 1.9% in March to 3.9%. The services trade forecast was cut from 4.8% to 3.3%, and the gains are uneven across regions.
Key points
- Merchandise trade volume is forecast to grow 3.9% in 2026 (1.9% in March) and 4.1% in 2027; global GDP growth is 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027
- Merchandise trade volume grew 3.5% in the first half of 2026; AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47% of the growth in merchandise trade and rose 67% year-on-year
- Commercial services trade volume is forecast to grow 3.3% in 2026 (4.8% in March) and 6.4% in 2027; transport and travel are weighed down by the Middle East conflict while digitally delivered services stay resilient
- Merchandise export growth in 2026: Asia 9.9%, North America 5.7%, Africa 5.6%, South America 3.4%; Europe -0.1%, the CIS -3.9%, the Middle East -17.2%
- Global AI infrastructure spending is projected to rise by at least 30% in 2026, with a further 10-20% rise expected in 2027
What to do in practice
- Review how changes in transport and sea freight costs affect your cost of purchases
- Outlooks differ greatly by region, so check the figures for the regions where your trading partners are located
The WTO, an international organisation, has raised its forecast for world trade. Even with the conflict in the Middle East, logistics workarounds and growing trade in semiconductors and servers for AI helped, so trade in goods is expected to grow 3.9% in 2026. Services such as travel and transport are weak, though, and countries and regions differ.
Points
- Trade in goods is expected to grow 3.9% in 2026 (the March forecast was 1.9%)
- Trade in semiconductors and servers for AI made up about half of the growth in trade in the first half
- Trade in services is expected to grow 3.3%, with travel and transport hit by the conflict in the Middle East
What the words mean
- supply chain
- the linked flow of goods from procuring materials to delivering the product
- trade in services
- exchanges between countries of intangible business such as travel, transport and information services
Global trade proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2026 despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, as supply chains adapted and strong investment in artificial intelligence provided a powerful boost to goods trade. However, the resilience was not uniform, with services trade and some regions more exposed to the effects of the conflict.
- World Trade Organization (WTO): WTO news item: AI boom and trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook, but gains to be uneven (Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, October 8, 2026)
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