OECD Interim Economic Outlook (September 2026): growth held up better than expected, but risks persistThe world economy did better than expected, but worries remain
On September 23, 2026 the OECD published its Interim Economic Outlook. It says the global economy has weathered the energy supply shock from the conflict in the Middle East better than expected, but continued inflationary pressures and uncertainty weigh on the near-term outlook, and projects global growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. G20 inflation is projected at 4.1% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027.
Key points
- Global growth is projected at 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027; the United States at 2.2% and 2.1%, the euro area at 1% in both years, China at 4.5% and 4.2%
- G20 inflation is projected at 4.1% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027, higher than previously projected, reflecting the surge in global energy prices
- The oil shock was cushioned by alternative supply routes, inventory drawdowns including the co-ordinated release of strategic reserves, extra production outside the Gulf and lower oil demand; strong AI investment also supports trade and growth
- Downside risks include fiscal pressures from rising long-term sovereign bond yields, AI investment that increasingly relies on external financing and could amplify a market correction if expected returns do not materialise, and weather-related pressure on food prices
What to do in practice
- Review borrowing terms and repayment plans for a period of rising long-term interest rates
- Note what changed since the June outlook, and follow later revisions
The OECD, an international organisation, says the world economy handled the energy shock from the conflict in the Middle East better than expected. But prices are rising more easily again, and the “cushions” that softened the shock are wearing thin, so it is too early to relax.
- ○Applies: World growth held up better than expected
- ○Applies: The cushions that softened the shock are wearing thin
- ×Does not apply: There is no longer any worry about the pace of price rises
- ○Applies: Investment in AI is supporting growth
Points
- World growth is expected to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027
- Prices are expected to rise 4.1% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027, higher than previously thought
- Investment in AI is supporting world trade and growth
What the words mean
- prices
- the general level of the prices of goods and services in shops
- long-term interest rate
- the rate of interest charged when money is borrowed for a long time
The global economy has weathered the energy supply shock triggered by the conflict in the Middle East better than expected, but continued inflationary pressures and uncertainty are weighing on the near-term outlook, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook. The Outlook projects global growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027.
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): OECD press release: Global growth holds up despite successive shocks, but risks persist (September 23, 2026)
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