IMF April 2026 WEO: growth slows to 3.1% in 2026 in the shadow of warThe IMF has issued its outlook for the world economy
In its World Economic Outlook of April 14, 2026, the IMF projected, assuming the conflict stays limited in duration and scope, that global growth would slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and be 3.2 percent in 2027. Global headline inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027, with the slowdown and the rise in inflation particularly pronounced in emerging market and developing economies.
Key points
- Assuming the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and be 3.2 percent in 2027
- Global headline inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027
- The slowdown in growth and the increase in inflation are expected to be particularly pronounced in emerging market and developing economies
- Downside risks are a longer or broader conflict, worsening geopolitical fragmentation, a reassessment of expectations of AI-driven productivity, renewed trade tensions, and high public debt; upside possibilities are faster AI productivity gains and a sustained easing of trade tensions
What to do in practice
- The projection rests on the assumption that the conflict stays limited, so remember that the numbers can change if the assumption changes
- Review how sensitive your own transactions are to input prices and exchange rates
On April 14, 2026 the IMF (International Monetary Fund) said the world economy is expected to grow 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027. The forecast assumes the conflict does not drag on, and it says the pace of growth eases a little in 2026.
- ○Applies: The conflict drags on or widens
- ○Applies: Divisions between countries deepen
- ○Applies: Expectations of AI-driven productivity are reassessed
- ○Applies: Trade tensions flare up again
Points
- The world economy is expected to grow 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027
- Price rises are expected to pick up somewhat in 2026 and settle again in 2027
- In emerging and developing economies, the slower pace and the price rises are especially large
What the words mean
- growth rate
- the share by which a country's or the world's economy grows over one year
- emerging economy
- a country whose economy is growing fast
Assuming the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF): IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2026
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