OECD Interim Economic Outlook (March 2026): Middle East conflict adds to inflation pressureThe conflict in the Middle East is casting a shadow over the world economy and prices
On March 26, 2026 the OECD published its Interim Economic Outlook. It says the resilience of the global economy is being tested by the energy supply shock from the conflict in the Middle East, and projects global growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. Headline G20 inflation is projected at 4.0% in 2026, higher than previously expected, easing to 2.7% in 2027.
Key points
- Global growth is projected at 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, slower than the pre-conflict trajectory
- The United States is projected at 2.0% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027; the euro area at 0.8% and 1.2%; China at 4.4% and 4.3%
- Headline G20 inflation is projected at 4.0% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027; the 2026 figure is higher than previously projected
- A key risk is energy prices staying elevated beyond mid-2026; persistent disruption to exports through the Strait of Hormuz would have more significant adverse consequences for energy prices, inflation expectations and growth
- On policy, support against high energy prices should be targeted and temporary, central banks should keep expectations well anchored, and efforts to safeguard public finances should be stronger
What to do in practice
- Estimate your cash flow for the case where energy and raw material purchase prices stay high
- Projections are revised from time to time, so check the latest publication
The OECD, an international organisation, says the conflict in the Middle East has made energy such as oil and gas harder to get, slowing the world economy and pushing prices up. Even so, global growth is still expected to hold up at 2.9% in 2026.
- (1) ConflictThe conflict in the Middle East continues
- (2) SupplyEnergy supply is shocked
- (3) PricesUpward pressure on prices
- (4) EconomyWorld growth slows
Points
- The conflict in the Middle East has shocked energy supply and added upward pressure on prices
- World growth is expected to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, lower than before the conflict
- If energy prices stay high, the economy could weaken further
What the words mean
- energy prices
- the prices of oil, gas and other sources of electricity and fuel
- prices
- the general level of the prices of goods and services in shops
The resilience of the global economy is being tested by the evolving conflict in the Middle East, which has generated new inflationary pressures while creating significant uncertainty, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook. As a result of these developments, the Outlook projects global growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027.
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): OECD press release: Global economic outlook remains robust but has weakened amid energy shock and geopolitical risks (March 26, 2026)
Economic news presents published statistics and outlooks. It is not investment solicitation or trading advice. Figures are as of publication and may be revised.
This article summarizes and explains materials published by government agencies and is not advice on any individual case. Rules can change, so for actual procedures and decisions always check the latest original materials and consult professionals such as tax accountants or labor and social security attorneys. English, Simplified Chinese and Traditional Chinese versions are translations prepared from the Japanese articles for convenience. If anything differs, the Japanese text and the original source take precedence.